Friday, September 21, 2012

Obama's Path to Victory

With the election drawing to within one month of completion, the electoral map which originally included about a dozen states up for grabs has separated more clearly into red and blue, leaving, really, only six states at this point truly up for grabs.

North Carolina and Wisconsin are still technically in play- however Romney's 5 point lead in North Carolina and Obama's 6 point lead in Wisconsin makes it fairly unlikely either of these states will see enough of a change in the polls to cause a switchup.

Pennsylvania, which a few months ago was barely Obama's to win, now has Obama leading by 9 points with virtually no undecided voters left in the race to grab- and unless one of the candidates really screws up at the debates, it would be difficult for Romney to grab it- the same is true for Nevada and Michigan.

That leaves Colorado, New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, and Iowa where the race is within 5 points, but all are leaning towards Obama, and with his campaign now outraising Romney's by tens of millions of dollars, and with Romney lacking funds having spent most of them, it is entirely likely 4 or 5 of them will end up going to Obama.

Obama now has several paths to clear victory- if he wins Florida OR Ohio, he is over the 270 vote margin.

If he wins Virginia, and any one other state, he has also won.

If he wins New Hampshire AND Colorada AND Iowa, he has won.

In fact, all Obama has to do is win any of the three states and hold on to Nevada and Michigan to win, and with Obama's new ad blitz and the very real likelihood that he will outperform Romney in the debates, it looks likely that he will.

Even winning three of the six states won't give Romney the election, at a minimum, assuming no other states see more than a 3 or 4 percent shift in polls towards Romney. Romney could win Florida and Ohio and Virginia and would still be a few electoral points shy of 270.

Because of corruption within the GOP in Florida Romney will probably win the state despite Obama's lead- but it looks fairly likely Obama will win at least three of these six states- and any combination of three of them wins the election.

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