Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Why Obama will Win

Best case scenario for Romney, winning by just 20 electoral points.

Best case scenario for Obama, winning by a massive 198 electoral points.

 Most likely scenario, Obama wins by 92 electoral points.

With the latest round of polls we see Obama pulling ahead in Colorado, Nevada, Florida, and New Hampshire- but losing ground in Iowa North Carolina and Wisconsin. Ohio remains about the same with Obama leading by about 5 or 6 points, Virginia the same with Obama ahead by about 4.

With the latest polls also comes a huge concern for Romney- he's now leading in Arizona and Missouri- two traditionally red states- by such a small amount it's within the margin of error- the mainstream media has hesitated to put these into swing state status probably because of Republicans whining about poll bias and liberal media bias- but the fact is it's theoretically possible for Obama to win both of these states- in Montana and Indiana, too, Obama has gained some ground.

A poor debate performance by Romney, and/or another "47%" style problem, could easily throw him out of the race just by sheer numbers- not to mention New surveys suggest Romney is considered now less likeable than Bush was when he left office along with reports earlier this year in August that suggested he was the least liked candidate for the presidency or vice presidency ever to run, replacing Sarah Palin.

On top of Obamas growing popularity in national polls and his outspending of Romney two to one in terms of ad dollars, the future looks bleak for Mitt Romney.
And the pure and simple fact is that even if the election was held today and all undecided voters went to Romney and voted at average turnout levels, Obama would still win just by having Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Nevada, in all of which his lead is too great for undecided voters to swing the states to Romney's side at current polling levels- in fact he'd win by a respectable 50 electoral points.

With Romney seemingly wasting time and money in Pennsylvania, he no longer has the resources or time to dedicate to, say, Arizona or Missouri, and should either of those states go blue after the debates are held, odds are Romney would be crushed by such a tidal wave of blue that his life in politics would be over.

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