Thursday, November 8, 2012

The Death of the Republican Party

As I point out in the video embedded below, the GOP is having some serious problems at the moment which I think the more die hard right wingers in the party are begrudgingly beginning to acknowledge after about 8 years of denial.

They have some key demographic problems that they seem not to be able to overcome- the explosion in the hispanic population in the last decade or so has put their supremacy in a few states at risk- particularly, in Nevada and Arizona, growing hispanic citizenry is making it increasingly unlikely that the GOP will go red for a GOP candidate there- and the largest of all solidly red states, Texas, is seeing growth in hispanic populations in the southern area of the state, making it a very real possibility that in the next decade or so, we could see Texas become a swing state- which would devastate the GOP.

We also see a fall in religiosity in some of the more development-prone red states- Missouri and Virginia are great examples, with increasing urbanization giving rise to suburban deists and agnostics. Northern Virginia is no longer part of the bible belt, neither is northern Missouri. In Florida, too, we see the middle of the state, which swings slightly left of center, expanding and encroaching upon northern rural counties, threatening GOP strongholds there that gave the state to George Bush.

The internet has also played a role- most people don't seem to remember that as recently as the 2004 election, twitter didn't exist, Facebook had barely been founded, and Youtube was only a year old and had barely begun to stabilize- the lack of social media in 2004 meant that Kerry was not able to capitalize upon the near constant stream of gaffes Bush was releasing, which likely would have gotten him the election. In 2008 we see the role of social media begin to become more important.

One thing I don't mention in the video but should have- the level of political activism online is likely leading to increased youth voting rates, and the youth is about as liberal as an aggregate as some of the more notoriously liberal states are- Republicans who chalked up increased youth voting to Obamas skin color or relatively young age seem to have ignored the likely role of internet activism- I theorize youth voting rates will remain higher than normal for several elections, bolstered instead by the sheer political framework online which tends to be run by younger individuals who largely lean left or centrist, and support, widely, gay rights, are pro choice, and despise evangelism.

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